Global inflation means a slowdown all over the world, low consumption, exports badly hit, biz confidence low. so where do we hide? what is insulated from inflation?
Ans :
All basic necessities for eg. pharma, food, utilities, telephones, stuff you cant do without.
So what stocks do we buy?
Ans:
1. telecom (you save money by not commuting). in telecom, most stocks are over priced, so wait a while.
2. CNG stocks, (IGL In india but only operates in delhi)
3. Gas pipeline owners (gail, guj st petronet), avoid pipe makers cause they are dime a dozen and hit by steel costs. buy pipeline owners.
4. pharma- not sure what to buy all look overpriced and like tadpoles in a lake, so similar, maybe best to buy a pharma fund then. avoid ranbaxy for ch.sake- dont like that mangt at all.
5. food sector: well no corporates grow food, they just pack it, like HUL, ITC, so not much value additon, also see rice exporters are hit by high costs and low quality we have in india. i like a co. called cadilla healthcare for the 'sugarfree' and margarine butter called ' nutralite'. but again it is expensive , wait for crash.
6. fert: my fav bet here is nagarjuna fert, or some govt run cos like madras fert which are deep in red, they cant be allowed to fade away. any way again they are like tadpoles, too many too similar. so buy them as a basket.
7. ethanol story : i like it now, but sugar stocks are so expensive. buy the top 2 like balram chini or bajaj hindustan, not sure really.
8. 2 wheelers, well they can revive, as petrol gets to 100/-
9. CNG kit makers , cylinder akers like nitin fire systems and one more large maker (forgot name).
10. Utilities,- power cos like NTPC will survive, but are politically sensitive like oil cos. still NTPC and power grid are my fav. for now.
pls send yr reactions, and additions to this. remeber the topic is what will beat inflation, what has the pricing power to survive.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
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